2012 Oscar Gut Predictions

Every year, I like to make Oscar predictions, usually based on my gut feeling about what I think will do well. Like most people, I never see all the Best Picture nominees. In fact, this year I haven’t seen any of them, so it’s very much a “man in the street” reaction. I usually watch the Golden Globes and I pay attention to film reviews, but other than that, I follow my gut.

Oscar nominations were announced this week – by the incredibly sexy Jennifer Lawrence, no less – and I posted by gut predictions on Twitter. I figured I’d repost them here, too, along with a little explanation.

Here we go:

Adapted Screenplay: MONEYBALL – Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin

Original Screenplay: THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius

Sound Editing: DRIVE – Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis

Sound Mixing: WAR HORSE – Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

Visual Effects: REAL STEEL – Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor, and Swen Gillberg 

Music (Original Score): THE ARTIST – Ludovic Bource

Music (Original Song): “Man or Muppet” from THE MUPPETS – Bret McKenzie 

Animated Short: A MORNING STROLL – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe

Live Short: TUBA ATLANTIC – Hallvar Witzo

Foreign Film: IN DARKNESS (Poland) – Agniezka Holland, director

Doc Short: SAVING FACE – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

Doc Film: HELL AND BACK AGAIN – Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner

Film Editing: THE ARTIST – Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius

Art Direction: THE ARTIST – Laurence Bennett & Robert Gould

Makeup: HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2 – Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin

Costume Design: THE ARTIST – Mark Bridges

Animated Feature: RANGO – Gore Verbinski

Cinematography: THE ARTIST – Guillaume Schiffman

Supporting Actor: Max von Sydow – EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer – THE HELP


Best Actress: Michelle Williams – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Directing: THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius 

Best Picture: THE ARTIST

Yep, I have THE ARTIST poised to take it all. Why? Hollywood loves a love letter to itself. And I think “Michel Hazanavicius” just rolls off the tongue, don’t you?

Gary Oldman is overdue for an Oscar. It’s his first nomination, if you can believe that! George Clooney is also nominated for THE DESCENDANTS, and is a pretty sure bet, but my gut says Oldman.

Michelle Williams  is a long shot, but she could benefit from a split vote between Meryl Streep (THE IRON LADY)  and Viola Davis (THE HELP).

Max von Sydow and Christopher Plummer (BEGINNERS) were my top picks for Best Supporting Actor, but based on the crowd’s reaction to von Sydow’s name at the nomination announcements, he seems to be the sentimental favorite.

Octavia Spencer from THE HELP seems a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actress.

The rest of the categories are complete guesses, except for Best Original Song. I have it on good authority that the only reason there are two songs is that only one song per movie is allowed – otherwise, every song from THE MUPPETS would be nominated, including the chickens’ cover of  “Forget You.”

Hope you enjoyed! One month from now, we’ll see if I’m right!


About Jonolobster

A self-described "nerd in progress," I geek out about: sci-fi, comics, history, politics, food, entertainment news, cats, and alliteration. A beleaguered blogger, I boldly bloviate between bouts of boredom, buck blandness and blockages, and bombard the blogosphere with blasts of blazing braggadocio.

Posted on January 26, 2012, in Movies. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. Hi Jonolobster,

    Nice predictions.. I too like to predict based on my gut feeling :). Let’s see how lucky you are with your predictions..

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