2012 Oscar Gut Predictions
Every year, I like to make Oscar predictions, usually based on my gut feeling about what I think will do well. Like most people, I never see all the Best Picture nominees. In fact, this year I haven’t seen any of them, so it’s very much a “man in the street” reaction. I usually watch the Golden Globes and I pay attention to film reviews, but other than that, I follow my gut.
Oscar nominations were announced this week – by the incredibly sexy Jennifer Lawrence, no less – and I posted by gut predictions on Twitter. I figured I’d repost them here, too, along with a little explanation.
Here we go:
Adapted Screenplay: MONEYBALL – Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Original Screenplay: THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
Sound Editing: DRIVE – Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
Sound Mixing: WAR HORSE – Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
Visual Effects: REAL STEEL – Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor, and Swen Gillberg
Music (Original Score): THE ARTIST – Ludovic Bource
Music (Original Song): “Man or Muppet” from THE MUPPETS – Bret McKenzie
Animated Short: A MORNING STROLL – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
Live Short: TUBA ATLANTIC – Hallvar Witzo
Foreign Film: IN DARKNESS (Poland) – Agniezka Holland, director
Doc Short: SAVING FACE – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Doc Film: HELL AND BACK AGAIN – Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
Film Editing: THE ARTIST – Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
Art Direction: THE ARTIST – Laurence Bennett & Robert Gould
Makeup: HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2 – Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
Costume Design: THE ARTIST – Mark Bridges
Animated Feature: RANGO – Gore Verbinski
Cinematography: THE ARTIST – Guillaume Schiffman
Supporting Actor: Max von Sydow – EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer – THE HELP
Best Actor: Gary Oldman – TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Best Actress: Michelle Williams – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Directing: THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
Best Picture: THE ARTIST
Yep, I have THE ARTIST poised to take it all. Why? Hollywood loves a love letter to itself. And I think “Michel Hazanavicius” just rolls off the tongue, don’t you?
Gary Oldman is overdue for an Oscar. It’s his first nomination, if you can believe that! George Clooney is also nominated for THE DESCENDANTS, and is a pretty sure bet, but my gut says Oldman.
Michelle Williams is a long shot, but she could benefit from a split vote between Meryl Streep (THE IRON LADY) and Viola Davis (THE HELP).
Max von Sydow and Christopher Plummer (BEGINNERS) were my top picks for Best Supporting Actor, but based on the crowd’s reaction to von Sydow’s name at the nomination announcements, he seems to be the sentimental favorite.
Octavia Spencer from THE HELP seems a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actress.
The rest of the categories are complete guesses, except for Best Original Song. I have it on good authority that the only reason there are two songs is that only one song per movie is allowed – otherwise, every song from THE MUPPETS would be nominated, including the chickens’ cover of “Forget You.”
Hope you enjoyed! One month from now, we’ll see if I’m right!